Pre-Market Pulse: March 25, 2026 — US Ceasefire Plan Sends Oil Crashing Below $100

Wednesday, March 25, 2026 — Pre-Market | 7:15 AM ET

Futures as of 7:15 AM ET:

| Index | Level | Change |

|-------|-------|--------|

| S&P 500 Futures | 6,622 | +0.7% |

| NASDAQ Futures | 21,800 | +0.9% |

| DOW Futures | 46,500 | +0.8% |

| Brent Crude | $98.23 | -6.0% |

Tuesday's close: S&P 500 ~6,550 | NASDAQ ~21,650 | DOW ~46,100

---

The Ceasefire Catalyst

Wednesday morning brought a sharp reversal. Overnight, reports emerged that the U.S. has drafted a 15-point ceasefire plan and is seeking a month-long ceasefire with Iran. The market's reaction was immediate and dramatic: stocks surged, oil crashed.

S&P 500 futures are up 0.7%. NASDAQ futures are up 0.9%. DOW futures are up 0.8%. This is the opposite of Tuesday's cautious tone. Tuesday, Trump's threat to "obliterate" Iran's power plants was read as escalation. Wednesday, the ceasefire plan is being read as de-escalation.

But here's the critical detail: Iran has already dismissed the ceasefire plan. An Iranian military spokesperson mocked U.S. attempts at negotiation, insisting the Americans were only negotiating with "non-existent" Iranian officials. Iran is not interested in a month-long ceasefire. The war continues.

So why are futures up? Because the market is pricing in the possibility of de-escalation, not the certainty. The U.S. is making a diplomatic push. That's enough to shift sentiment from "war will escalate" to "war might end."

---

Oil Crashes Through $100

Brent crude is the real story. It's down 6-7% on the day, trading at $98.23 — below $100 for the first time in days. WTI is near $87, also down sharply. European natural gas prices are collapsing.

This is a massive move. Just yesterday, Brent was at $101.54. The 15-point ceasefire plan took out $3+ per barrel in a matter of hours.

For the Fed, this is the best-case scenario. Powell's nightmare was sustained high oil prices that would unanchor inflation expectations. If oil stabilizes below $100, the inflation story changes. The Fed can stay on hold without worrying about energy-driven price pressures.

For equities, this is a relief. Oil below $100 means:

- Lower energy costs for consumers and businesses

- Less inflationary pressure on the Fed

- Reduced geopolitical risk premium

- Better earnings outlook for non-energy sectors

But the caveat is important: Iran hasn't agreed to anything. The ceasefire plan is a U.S. proposal. Iran is still launching missile strikes. The Strait of Hormuz is still contested. Oil could easily spike back above $110 if negotiations break down.

---

The Technical Setup

Tuesday closed around 6,550 on the S&P 500 (estimates vary, but in that range). Wednesday's +0.7% move would put the index near 6,595-6,600. That's still below the 200-day moving average, but it's above Tuesday's close.

The key question: is this a sustainable rally or a relief bounce that will fade? The answer depends on whether the ceasefire plan gains traction.

If Iran agrees to negotiations: oil stays below $100, equities rally, and the market reprices higher. The S&P 500 could test 6,700 or higher.

If Iran rejects the plan and the war escalates: oil spikes back above $110, equities roll over, and we test the 6,500 support level again.

Right now, the market is betting on the first scenario. But it's a bet, not a fact.

---

Economic Data

Wednesday has some economic data:

- 8:30 AM ET: U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes

- 10:00 AM ET: Preliminary U.S. Imports for Consumption of Steel Products

These are secondary data points. The ceasefire news is dominating the narrative. But if import prices are hot, it could add to inflation concerns and temper the rally.

---

Earnings

Wednesday has 70 earnings scheduled, up from 48 on Tuesday and 25 on Monday. This is the start of a heavier earnings week (95 on Thursday, 24 on Friday). Key sectors reporting: industrials, energy, consumer discretionary.

Energy earnings could be volatile. If oil stays below $100, energy stocks will suffer. If oil bounces back, energy stocks will benefit. The market is watching to see if the ceasefire sticks.

---

The Tone

Wednesday morning is optimistic. The market is pricing in de-escalation. Oil is crashing. Futures are surging. The narrative has flipped from "war will escalate" to "war might end."

But this is a fragile rally. It's built on a ceasefire proposal that Iran has already rejected. If negotiations break down, the market will reverse just as quickly as it rallied.

The pre-market is bullish. But stay alert. The geopolitical situation is fluid, and oil prices are the ultimate tell. If Brent bounces back above $102, the rally is over.