F, F & A — Sunday 9 PM EST: The World Opens

A) FX Market — The First Heartbeat

The foreign exchange market opened the week with a firm bid for the U.S. dollar, a continuation of the trend that has pushed the greenback to its highest levels since November 2025. The primary driver remains a flight to safety, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a surge in oil prices create a deeply risk-averse mood across global markets. Over the weekend, a U.S. strike on Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal added fresh urgency to an already volatile energy picture. Central bank commentary is also in focus, with eight of the world's ten largest central banks scheduled to deliver policy decisions this week.

As of Sunday evening in New York, the key pairs reflect this dollar strength:

| Pair | Level | Context |

|------|-------|---------|

| USD/JPY | 159.69 | Yen under pressure near 160; Japan's finance ministry signaling potential intervention |

| EUR/USD | 1.1430 | Euro weighed down by dollar strength and high energy costs for the eurozone |

| AUD/USD | 0.6982 | Aussie showing resilience, supported by hawkish RBA commentary and rate hike expectations |

| USD/CNH | 6.8988 | Offshore yuan relatively stable; China's strong export data providing some support |

The dollar's strength is broad-based. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index sits near its 2026 highs, buoyed by safe-haven flows and the expectation that elevated oil prices will keep U.S. inflation sticky, limiting the Federal Reserve's room to cut. Japan and South Korea issued a joint statement over the weekend signaling readiness to act against excessive FX volatility, a notable coordinated signal from two of Asia's largest economies.

FX Tone: The week begins with a clear risk-off posture in currency markets — a strong dollar, a pressured yen, and a euro caught between energy costs and growth concerns.

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B) Futures Market — The First Look at Monday

U.S. equity futures opened Sunday evening with a modest rebound after a punishing week. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,632.19, its lowest level of 2026, marking its third consecutive weekly decline with a loss of 1.6% on the week. The Nasdaq Composite ended at 22,105.36, down 1.3% for the week, while the Dow shed roughly 2.0%. The gains in Sunday evening futures are tentative — a repositioning after heavy selling, not a shift in conviction.

As of 8:30 PM EST on Sunday, March 15:

| Contract | Direction | Change |

|----------|-----------|--------|

| ES (S&P 500 Futures) | Up | +0.43% |

| NQ (Nasdaq 100 Futures) | Up | +0.47% |

| YM (Dow Futures) | Up | +0.36% |

| Treasury Futures (10Y) | Up | Yield near 4.28%, futures indicating slightly lower yields |

The macro landscape is dominated by oil. Brent crude jumped above $106 a barrel early Monday after the U.S. struck military targets on Kharg Island, the terminal that handles nearly all of Iran's oil exports. West Texas Intermediate is trading near $98. This is the first sustained period above $100 for Brent since 2022, and it is stoking inflation fears that directly complicate the outlook for central banks.

The Federal Reserve meets Wednesday and is expected to hold rates steady, but its forward guidance will be scrutinized for any shift in response to the energy shock. The technology sector will also draw attention as Nvidia kicks off its GTC conference on Monday, a potential catalyst for sentiment in the growth and AI trade.

Futures Tone: A cautious bounce in U.S. equity futures — more relief than conviction — against a backdrop of oil-driven inflation fears and a critical week of central bank decisions.

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C) Asia Markets — The First Equity Reaction

Asian markets are set for a lower open on Monday, directly reflecting the weekend's escalation in the Middle East and the resulting spike in energy prices. Friday's session already delivered broad losses across the region, and early indications point to a continuation. Local catalysts are layered on top: Japan is releasing strategic oil reserves starting Monday, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise rates for a second consecutive month, and the International Energy Agency has indicated that emergency stockpile releases will be directed to Asia first.

Key index levels from Friday's close and early Monday indications:

| Index | Friday Close | Weekly Change | Monday Outlook |

|-------|-------------|---------------|----------------|

| Nikkei 225 | 53,819.61 | -3.2% | Futures point lower; Japan releasing oil stockpiles |

| ASX 200 | 8,617.10 | -3.6% | Expected to open down ~0.7%; RBA rate decision looms |

| Hang Seng | 25,465.60 | -1.0% | Projected to open down ~0.7% |

| Shanghai Composite | 4,095.45 | Down | Facing global headwinds; strong export data offers some buffer |

Japan's Nikkei has been hit particularly hard, losing over 3% last week as the yen's weakness and surging import costs weigh on corporate earnings expectations. Australia's ASX 200 also suffered a steep 3.6% weekly decline, with energy-sensitive sectors under pressure. In China, the government's recently announced GDP growth target of 4.5%-5% and strong January-February export growth of 21.8% year-over-year provide a degree of insulation, but the global risk-off mood is difficult to escape.

Asia Tone: The region opens the week on a negative footing, with equity markets absorbing the dual shock of elevated oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty.

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D) Global Synthesis

The world chose to start the week with a distinct tone of risk aversion. The initial heartbeats from FX, futures, and the early Asian session all point to a cautious and defensive posture from global capital. The sharp escalation of conflict in the Middle East over the weekend has pushed oil prices to multi-year highs, creating a clear inflationary shock that is rippling across every asset class. The U.S. dollar has solidified its role as the primary safe-haven currency. U.S. equity futures are showing a modest bounce, but it reads more as tentative repositioning after a severe sell-off than a confident embrace of risk. Asia is opening lower. The focus now shifts squarely to the world's central banks, which face the difficult task of navigating rising inflation and slowing growth in a week packed with critical policy meetings — the Fed on Wednesday, the ECB on Thursday, and the RBA among others.

Global Summary: The global market tone is cautious risk-off — driven by a geopolitical-led surge in oil, a firm U.S. dollar, and nervous equity markets awaiting direction from a historic week of central bank decisions.