F, F & A — Sunday 9 PM EST: The World Opens

Sunday, March 22, 2026 — 9:00 PM EST

The world is opening. Here's what it's saying.

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FX Market — The First Heartbeat

The dollar index is holding at 99.53, up 0.03% on the day. That's not a dramatic move, but it's directionally clear: the greenback is still the safe-haven bid. USD/JPY is trading around 159.69, with the yen under pressure despite the Bank of Japan holding rates steady earlier this week. The Fed's signal that zero rate cuts are coming for 2026 is supporting the dollar even as other central banks hold pat.

EUR/USD has slipped to 1.1563, down 0.06%. The euro is feeling the weight of two things: first, the elevated oil prices that are hitting European energy costs harder than U.S. costs; second, the divergence in central bank messaging. The ECB is navigating its own energy shock, and the market is pricing in a wider gap between Fed policy (on hold) and ECB policy (still potentially dovish).

AUD/USD is steady near 0.7004. The Australian dollar has been the beneficiary of commodity strength — oil and metals — but it's also vulnerable to a China slowdown. The offshore yuan (USD/CNH) is tracking Chinese weakness, with sentiment cautious heading into Monday's open in Shanghai.

FX tone: Dollar strength on safe-haven bid; yen under pressure but stable; euro feeling the energy squeeze.

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Futures Market — The First Look at Monday

S&P 500 futures (ES) are trading around 6,588.50, up 29.50 points or 0.45% on the session. That's a modest recovery from Friday's 1.5% selloff, but it's not a rip. The market is digesting the damage: the S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,506.48, its lowest level in four months, and it broke below its 200-day moving average. That technical break is significant because it tends to trigger selling from systematic funds.

NASDAQ futures (NQ) are down roughly 1.83% from Friday's close, underperforming the broader market. Tech is still the most vulnerable sector given the combination of higher rates (which hurt valuations) and energy costs (which hit semiconductor supply chains).

DOW futures (YM) are around 46,108, down 233 points or 0.50%. The industrial average is feeling the weight of energy costs and the tariff uncertainty that's been building all week.

10-year Treasury futures are holding near 112.45, with the 10-year yield floating around 4.29%. That's elevated and reflects the Fed's clear signal that rates are staying higher for longer. The 2-year is near 103.594, down 0.094, suggesting the market is still pricing in some economic softening even if rate cuts are off the table.

Futures tone: Modest recovery from Friday lows, but technical damage (200-day MA break) remains; tech underperforming; rates staying elevated.

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Asia Markets — The First Equity Reaction

Japan's Nikkei 225 is trading around 53,700, flat to slightly lower. The market was closed Friday for Vernal Equinox Day, so Monday's open will be the first reaction to Friday's U.S. selloff. The yen weakness is a mixed bag for Japanese exporters — good for earnings, but the energy costs are rising.

Australia's ASX 200 is down 0.5% to 1%, tracking Wall Street weakness. The Australian market is sensitive to both energy prices (Australia is a commodity exporter) and China sentiment (China is Australia's largest trading partner). Both are uncertain right now.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed Friday at 25,277.32, down 0.88%. China's Shanghai Composite is mixed, trading between 4,013 and 4,028 depending on the session. The Chinese market is caught between two forces: energy costs are rising (bad for growth), but the government has room to ease policy (potentially good for sentiment). The market is waiting to see which force wins.

Asia tone: Mixed, tracking Wall Street weakness; energy concerns weighing; China waiting for policy signals.

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Global Synthesis

The world is opening cautiously. The dollar is holding its safe-haven bid. Futures are recovering modestly from Friday's lows, but the technical damage (200-day MA break on the S&P 500) is a warning signal. Asia is tracking Wall Street weakness, with energy concerns and China uncertainty as the key wildcards.

The underlying story hasn't changed: the Fed is on hold, oil is still elevated (even after retreating from $118), and geopolitical risk is a permanent feature of the landscape. The market is repricing to a world where rate cuts are off the table and volatility is the new normal.

Friday's quadruple witching ($5.7 trillion in options expiry) created mechanical selling. Monday's open will tell us whether that selling was cathartic or the start of something worse. The key levels to watch: S&P 500 support around 6,500 (where it closed Friday), and any movement in oil prices (which remain the primary driver of inflation expectations).

Global summary: Dollar holds, futures tick higher, Asia braces for another week of oil and Fed paralysis.