F, F & A — Sunday 9 PM EST: Asia Opens Cautious

Sunday, March 29, 2026 — 9 PM EST | Global Markets Open

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A) FX Market — The First Heartbeat

| Pair | Rate | Change | Driver |

|------|------|--------|--------|

| USD/JPY | 160.32 | +0.41% | Safe-haven bid, geopolitical risk |

| EUR/USD | 1.1563 | -0.15% | Risk-off, energy concerns |

| AUD/USD | 0.6878 | -0.18% | Commodity weakness, Strait of Hormuz |

| USD/CNH | 7.2450 | +0.25% | China weakness, US strength |

The dollar is holding firm. USD/JPY is trading at 160.32, near its highs for the week. The yen is weak because Japanese investors are rotating into safe-haven assets (US Treasuries, gold) rather than the yen itself. The euro is softer at 1.1563 as European energy prices remain elevated from the Iran conflict. The Australian dollar is under pressure at 0.6878 as commodity prices weaken and geopolitical risk persists. The offshore yuan is softer at 7.2450 as China's economy shows signs of stress.

Weekend drivers: Trump's 10-day pause expires April 6. No major central bank comments. Oil prices holding above $109. The Strait of Hormuz remains contested.

FX tone: Cautious, dollar-bid, risk-off positioning.

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B) Futures Market — The First Look at Monday

| Contract | Level | Change | Catalyst |

|----------|-------|--------|----------|

| ES (S&P 500) | 6,320 | -0.5% | Correction territory, geopolitical risk |

| NQ (NASDAQ) | 21,100 | -0.5% | Correction territory, tech weakness |

| YM (DOW) | 44,950 | -0.4% | Correction territory, energy headwind |

| 10Y Treasury | 112.30 | +0.15 | Safe-haven bid, inflation concerns |

U.S. index futures are down modestly as Sunday evening trading begins. The S&P 500 futures are at 6,320, down 0.5% from Friday's close. The Nasdaq futures are at 21,100, also down 0.5%. The Dow futures are at 44,950, down 0.4%. All three indexes are in correction territory. The 10-year Treasury is at 112.30, up 15 basis points, as investors rotate into safe-haven bonds.

The tone is cautious. The market is digesting a week where the S&P 500 fell 3.8%, the Dow and Nasdaq entered correction territory, and oil oscillated between $98 and $110. Traders are waiting to see if Monday brings any new developments on the Iran ceasefire talks or if the market continues to reprice lower.

Futures tone: Cautious, defensive positioning, safe-haven bid.

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C) Asia Markets — The First Equity Reaction

| Index | Level | Change | Driver |

|-------|-------|--------|--------|

| Nikkei 225 | 53,373 | -0.43% | Yen weakness, Wall Street losses |

| ASX 200 | 8,433 | -0.98% | Commodity weakness, energy concerns |

| Hang Seng | 24,952 | +0.38% | Tech bounce, China support |

| Shanghai Composite | 4,189 | +0.16% | Government support, stimulus hopes |

Asia opens the week with mixed signals. Japan's Nikkei 225 is down 0.43% at 53,373, tracking Wall Street losses but supported by yen weakness (which is positive for Japanese exporters). Australia's ASX 200 is down 0.98% at 8,433 as commodity prices weaken and energy concerns persist. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is up 0.38% at 24,952, benefiting from a modest tech bounce and Chinese government support. Shanghai is up 0.16% at 4,189 as investors price in potential stimulus measures.

Local catalysts: Japan's Nikkei is supported by a weaker yen (good for exporters). Australia is pressured by lower commodity prices (oil, iron ore). China is supported by government stimulus expectations. Hong Kong is caught between U.S. tech weakness and Chinese support.

Asia tone: Mixed, cautious, waiting for clarity on Iran ceasefire.

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D) Global Synthesis

The world opens the week in a holding pattern. The dollar is bid on safe-haven flows. Equities are down modestly as investors digest a brutal week. Bonds are rallying as the 10-year Treasury climbs. Oil is holding above $109 as geopolitical risk persists. Asia is mixed: Japan is weak on Wall Street losses, Australia is weak on commodity weakness, China is supported by government expectations, and Hong Kong is caught in between.

The tone is cautious but not panicked. Traders are waiting for the April 6 deadline when Trump's pause on Iranian energy strikes expires. If negotiations progress, expect a relief rally. If the war escalates, expect more selling. Until then, the market is in a defensive posture: dollar-bid, bonds rallying, equities under pressure, safe-haven assets (gold, yen, Treasuries) attracting capital.

The world is pricing in a scenario where the war continues, oil stays elevated, the Fed stays on hold, and equities stay under pressure. Monday will tell us if that narrative holds or if new developments shift the tone.

Global summary: Cautious, defensive, waiting for April 6 clarity.